DEUXIEME FORUM SUR LA PREVISION CLIMATIQUE SAISONNIERE ET SES APPLICATIONS EN AFRIQUE CENTRALE

SECOND CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM FOR CENTRAL AFRICA

"PRESA – AC/02"

"Climate, Food Security and Water Resource management"

13 - 18 October 2003, Libreville - GABON

Organised conjointly by the:

African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development	Ministère des Transports et de l’Aviation Civile et Commerciale du Gabon	World Meteorological Organisation

From the 13^th to the 18^th October 2003, was held in Libreville, Gabon, the second Forum on the seasonal climatic forecast and its applications in Central Africa and in the Gulf of Guinea countries. This second edition whose topic is "Climate, Food Security and Water Resource management", aim the development of the climatological and hydrological forecasts for the rainy season September to December 2003, in order to integrate them in the various spheres of socio-economic activities, in particular in the field of Agriculture and Water Resource Management, and dissemination of climatic information to assist users in decision-makings on their activities and to develop an early warning system on food security and the management of resources water

This forum was preceded by one period of technical preparation (pre-forum) held at ACMAD centre (Niamey, Niger) during which the consensual seasonal forecast was elaborated. This pre-forum was organised as follows: the Climate Unit of the ACMAD coordinates the envoy of data used as predictors to the NMSs and compiles the resulting products from each Met Services; then a discussion on line (phone, e-mail) followed with the various participants and the product of consensus is then elaborated at ACMAD.

An evaluation of the forecast issued last year during PRESA-AC/01 was made during this workshop, followed by the restitution of the consensus forecast for the period September to December of this year

THE FORUM

The forum was organised in three steps : the opening ceremony, the work of commissions and the closing ceremony.

During this forum, the evaluation of SOND 2002 season was made. The result showed that the forecast was near to reality to more than 98%. Then the product of consensus was exposed to the assistance. For SOND 2003 season, precipitation will be normal to above normal in the Golf of Guinea and in most countries of sub-region for Angola and the extreme north of the RDC where a below normal tendency will be observed. Four working groups were formed in the following fields: climatology, hydrology, agrometeorology and communication. These commissions aimed to gather experts and users. Works and recommendations resulted from these commissions were presented at plenary session.

I. PARTICIPATION

More than 40 experts and users from seven (7) countries in the sub-region attended the forum. In connection with the topic (climate, food security and water resource management), each country is represented as far as possible by a climatologist, a hydrologist, a specialist in agriculture and communication. The users of climatological information of the country host were solicited to take part in this forum, unfortunately the NMS of Gabon could not invite them and it is quite deplorable because their participation would have given another dimension to this forum. The list of the participants is in appendix.

II. THE FORUM

The work of commissions was presented in plenary session held at the National Meteorological Service of Gabon.

II.1 Présentation OF THE commissions’ WORKS

II.1.1 Commission of Climatology

The commission of climatology started its work on the afternoon of 13 October 2003. Evaluation of the seasonal rainfall forecast during the Brazzaville forum was made and the update of the consensus forecast elaborated at ACMAD for this rainfall season.

II.1.1.1 Evaluation of the forecast issued in Brazzaville at PRESA-AC/01

Participants from the sub-region having a model of seasonal forecast made the evaluation of their forecast.

That evaluation was made at a national level then for the entire sub-region. The result is here below :

Generally speaking, it has been observed that :

77.4% of success (category forecasted same as category observed) : green colour in the map;
21.4% where there is an error of one category between the observed and the forecasted, yellow colour in the map;
1.2% of failure where the forecast condition was opposite to the observed one, red colour in the map. This situation is due to the local effect, which was not taken into consideration in a regional basis.

II.1.1.2 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for the period September – October – November – December 2003

The consensus obtained from national forecast and the world climate centres (IRI, NCEP, ECHAM, ECMWF, etc.), taking into account the coherence of the regional forecast by the DMC Harare from SARCOF including Angola and RDC, gave the result shown below. It is expected that the forecast will be updated at national levels during the coming month. Hence, users are advised to contact the National Meteorological Service (NMS) for the interpretation, and eventually additional information.

For the presentation of the forecast, the experts use information of the models to estimate the probability that the seasonal total amount of precipitations of this year belongs to the one of the three categories defined here below.

Definition of the categories

The Normal pluviometric is defined here as the average 30 years seasonal rainfall, over the period 1961-1990.

the category " above normal " corresponds to the third of the observations whose seasonal cumulative total amount of precipitations were highest (33%).
the category " below normal " corresponds to the third of the observations whose seasonal cumulative total amount of precipitations were weakest (33%).
the category " near normal " corresponds to the group of the remaining years (33%).

After reviewing information on the forecast, the domain have been divided into five zones.

- For the Zone-I that is from the Golf of Guinea countries, Cameroon, Guinea Equatorial, North-East of Gabon, North and Central Congo, up to the South-East of RDC and Zone-IV that is the central and eastern part of Angola, normal to above normal rainfall is expected.

- For the Zone-II, that is the extreme North-East of Congo and the North tip of RDC, normal to below normal rainfall is expected.

- For the Zone-III including Sao Tome, western and southern Gabon, the South-West of Congo and RDC, the North-West of Angola, above normal to normal rainfall is expected.

- For the Zone-V that is the coastal area of Angola, below normal to normal rainfall is expected.

Although we mentioned above the categories of stronger probability for this year, the users are reminded that by planning the coming season, there are possibilities of observing precipitations in the other categories.

Legend of the map:

For each zone defined by regional forecasting experts, the numbers are in 3 cases representing the probability that the seasonal total of precipitation are in "above-normal" (upper box), "near-normal" (middle box) and "below-normal") (Lower box). Hence in zone I, there is a 35% chance that the seasonal cumulative totals of precipitation be in the category "above-normal", 45% chance that it be "near-normal" and 20% chance that it falls within the "below-normal" Category. The boundaries on the map should be considered as areas of transition for the forecast.

II.1.2 Commission of Hydrology

Activity focused the methodology, evaluation of the last year forecast and the presentation of the seasonal hydrological forecast of this year for Lake Chad basin.

For the evaluation of 2002 forecast, for the Chari Logone basin, the forecast was closed to the observed situation with 80% rate of success.

For this year forecast, it is expected that the hydrolicity will be normal with tendency toward above normal in the basin.

II.1.3 Commission of Agrometeorology

The participant of RDC, Mr David M. Kimene on behalf of the NGO Some presentations Centre d'Appui au Développement Intégral MBANKANA (CADIM) presented the experience of CADIM for some variety of plants over Bateke plateau.

Mr F. NDJELASSILI and Mr MOUSSOUNDA-NZIGOU from Gabon, presented the result of their study on the interaction between ground, plant and agrometeorological factors.

It was obvious from these presentations that meteorological data is important in the planning and management of agricultural activities.

II.1.4 Commission of Communication

The RANET equipment was presented to the assistance. It was shown that this means of communication is more adapted to the situation in Africa; climatological information can be transmitted to the end-user at near real time. The advantage of the system is that it use renewable energy, easy to use and less costly compared to the other means of communication.

III- CLOSURE OF THE FORUM

The forum was officially closed on 17 October 2003. It was presided by the General Secretary of the Ministry of Transports his Excellency Dieudonné MFOUBOU MOUDOUMA representing the Minister of State, Minister of Transports.

Four strong points marked this ceremony, namely:

The presentation of the final official statement sanctioning the end of the Forum’s work by Mr Nadji Tellro of Chad;

The presentation of participant motion thanks to his Excellency El Hadj Omar BONGO, President of Gabon by Mr Kivouvou Maurice of Congo;

The presentation of the evaluation of the 2002 forecast and the consensus rainfall forecast for the SOND 2003 season by Mr T. Augustin of Cameroon and;

The closure speech of the General Secretary of the Ministry of Transports his Excellency Dieudonné MFOUBOU MOUDOUMA representing the Minister of State, Minister of Transports.

Thirteen (13) recommendations were adopted by the forum.

RECOMMANDATIONS

Noting :

Climate changes and its impacts;
The value and importance of agro-meteorological and hydrological data for the reliability of short, medium and long range forecast;
The contribution of forecast to sustainable development and to reduce poverty;

The Forum recommends the following :

Creation f Climate Research centre for the sub-region under the aegis of CEMAC and WMO;
Rehabilitation and reinforcement of observation networks and meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological measurements in the sub region;
Implementation of multidisciplinary task group in all countries to take into account the climatological information in various socio-economic activities;
Use of the Agence de la Gestion Intégrée de l’Eau en Afrique Centrale (AGIEC) channel to organise hydrologist network in order to promote the exchange and experience of knowledges in the sub region.
Acquisition of RANET system for the dissemination of climate information to the rural areas and connexion means between Meteorological Services (NMSs) and the medias.
Signature of agreement protocol between NMSs and the medias for the coordination of activities.
Formation of other focal points from the sub region in agro-meteo, climatology, hydrology and communication at ACMAD
Equipment of the NMSs in communication system, computer tools;
Easy access of NMSs agent to internet
Effective presence of Decision Makers of the sub region implied to the seasonal forecast process in the next forums;
Organisation of forum for the season march-april-may (MAM);
Creation of scientific review at the sub region level;
Organisation of national forum in different countries of the sub region for the vulgarisation of seasonal forecast product with WMO assistance.